Abstract: . . .  energy after 2020 and that a quarter of the NCP will be reserved for this purpose, then the total amount of future power in the form of offshore wind energy could amount to 60GW. Table 6 Assessments for the future. Investment 1000 MW park Maximum capacity Unit [€/kW] [GW] 2010 2040 1 2020 1877 5 2030 1783 15 2040 1694 30 2050 1609 60 References (offshore wind energy): 1. Opti-OWECS, EU Joule Project JOR3-CT95-0087, augustus 1998 2. De Noord, Large-scale offshore wind energy, ECN Beleidsstudies, ECN-I--99-03, februari 1999 3. EIA, Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 1999, december 1998 4. Novem, Plaatsingsplan windenergie buitengaats, augustus 1999 5. VROM, Duurzame energie in de race naar 2050, Ministerie van VROM, 1999 Review of section 2.2.6 Wind Energy by P.E.Morthorst, Risø National Laboratory, Denmark In general: A very interesting and well-written section on the development of onshore and offshore wind power. In the long-term time perspective your estimates might be too conservative – the cost-effectiveness of wind power may continue to improve, although the size of the turbines will reach an upper limit (see comments below). Comments to the authors: When the learning curve approach is specified per kW, normally only the cost reductions are taken into account, that is a doubling of installed capacity results in x% decrease in investment costs. As far as I can see this assumption is adopted in the DACES-study as well. But a considerable part of the increase in cost-effectiveness . . .
. . .  year?). I am a little confused about the way you are using the exchange rates. I don’t understand footnote 4 – is the deflator of 1.025 the difference in price-development between the US and Euro-countries – or do you implicitly use the exchange rate to calculate to constant currency – this should be made more clear. Finally, the $-exchange rate is very low in 1996-97, which might contribute to the confusion. Perhaps you should make a note on this – but leave it with that, it is not an easy matter to handle in a totally satisfactorily way. The progress ratios used seem very much in line with the literature – Neij (in Cost dynamics of wind power, Energy, Volume 24, Issue 5, May 1999) estimates a range between .92 and .95 using data for Danish wind turbines. Observe that this is per kW too – so neither has she taken into account the efficiency increase. But perhaps you should add her to your reference list. In Denmark an action plan for developing offshore turbines has been prepared by the Danish energy authorities and Danish Utilities (Elselskabernes og Energistyrelsens Arbejdsgruppe for havmøller, Havmølle-handlingsplan for de danske farvande (in Danish), (Action plan for offshore turbines in Danish waters), June 1997). In this report the cost per kWh is estimated to approximately 5 €cent, considerably lower than your estimate, but using a real interest rate of 5%, only. I don’t know if that explains most of the difference. But this cost-estimate for Danish offshore turbines is . . .
--3000,2,750,3159,22201